Real-time forecasting of infectious disease dynamics with a stochastic semi-mechanistic model

Forecasting time and place of earthquakes using a Semi-Markov model (with case study in Tehran province)

The paper examines the application of semi-Markov models to the phenomenon of earthquakes in Tehran province. Generally, earthquakes are not independent of each other, and time and place of earthquakes are related to previous earthquakes; moreover, the time between earthquakes affects the pattern of their occurrence; thus, this occurrence can be likened to semi-Markov models. ...

Dynamics of a Delayed Epidemic Model with Beddington-DeAngelis ‎Incidence Rate and a Constant Infectious Period

In this paper, an SIR epidemic model with an infectious period and a non-linear Beddington-DeAngelis type incidence rate function is considered. The dynamics of this model depend on the reproduction number R0. Accurately, if R0 < 1, we show the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium by analyzing the corresponding characteristic equation and using compa...

Forecasting high-priority infectious disease surveillance regions: a socioeconomic model.

BACKGROUND Few researchers have assessed the relationships between socioeconomic inequality and infectious disease outbreaks at the population level globally. We use a socioeconomic model to forecast national annual rates of infectious disease outbreaks. METHODS We constructed a multivariate mixed-effects Poisson model of the number of times a given country was the origin of an outbreak in a ...

Dynamics of a discrete-time plant-herbivore model

Real-time forecasting of an epidemic using a discrete time stochastic model: a case study of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009)

BACKGROUND Real-time forecasting of epidemics, especially those based on a likelihood-based approach, is understudied. This study aimed to develop a simple method that can be used for the real-time epidemic forecasting. METHODS A discrete time stochastic model, accounting for demographic stochasticity and conditional measurement, was developed and applied as a case study to the weekly inciden...